Business Development
Know what your asset is worth, and who would pay for it
Business Development turns a scientific programme into a deal position: risk-adjusted valuation, comparable transaction benchmarks, a shortlist of the acquirers and investors whose strategy actually fits your asset, and the diligence package they will ask for - before they ask for it.
- rNPV
- NPV, DCF and real-options methods, all with exposed assumption trees
- 500K+
- Studies behind the stage-risk models
- Global
- Transaction benchmark coverage
- Every
- Assumption inspectable, and adjustable
Valuation and deal outputs are models with stated assumptions - not financial advice, and not an offer. The valuation below runs live in the page from the same functions the site was built with, on an illustrative asset.
Key features
Six things a counterparty will test, answered before they ask
Open a capability to see what it does and the screen it does it in. All six read the same asset record, so the probability of success in the valuation is the one the diligence pack cites.
01Asset valuation - rNPV, NPV and DCF
Standard finance, implemented honestly: every driver traced to a record, and the sensitivity ranked so the negotiation happens over the assumption that matters.
- Risk-adjusted net present value with stage-specific probability of success
- Full discounted cash flow modelling with an inspectable assumption tree
- Development cost and timeline modelling by phase and indication
- Sensitivity analysis showing which assumptions actually move the valuation
- Scenario valuation: conservative, base and aggressive, side by side
- Real-options treatment for assets whose value lies in optionality rather than a single path
Business Dev · ValuationrNPV waterfall by phase, with the sensitivity tornado and assumption panel. 02Comparable transactions
What an asset like yours has actually commanded, broken into the structure it was paid in.
- Benchmark deals matched on modality, indication, stage and geography
- Deal structure breakdown: upfront, milestones, royalties, equity
- Value distribution by development stage - what an asset like yours has historically commanded
- Terms trend analysis over time, so you know whether the market has moved
- Precedent-based structure recommendation for your own negotiation
Business Dev · ComparablesMatched deal table with structure breakdown and stage-value distribution. 03Buyer & investor matching
Counterparties scored on strategic fit rather than size, each with the reason it is on the list.
- Counterparty identification scored on strategic fit, not company size
- Portfolio gap analysis - who has a hole your asset fills
- Deal history and behaviour: what they buy, at what stage, on what structure
- Therapeutic-area focus and recent strategic direction
- Decision-maker mapping within target organisations
- Ranked outreach list with the rationale for each name
Business Dev · Buyer matchingRanked counterparties with fit rationale and deal-history panel. 04Due diligence assistant
The pack a serious counterparty will ask for, assembled from the evidence base - and the gaps flagged before the other side finds them.
- Diligence checklist generated for the asset's modality and stage
- Automated evidence assembly: science, IP, clinical, regulatory, competitive
- Gap identification - what a serious counterparty will ask for that you do not yet have
- Red-flag surfacing before the other side finds it
- Data-room structure and readiness assessment
- Works in both directions: prepare your own asset, or scrutinise one you are evaluating
Business Dev · DiligenceReadiness checklist with evidence coverage and flagged gaps. 05Portfolio & pipeline management
The pipeline as one risk-adjusted position, with the concentration risk it is carrying made explicit.
- Portfolio-wide valuation with contribution analysis
- Pipeline visualisation by stage, indication and modality
- Resource-allocation modelling across competing programmes
- Prioritisation scoring on risk-adjusted value and strategic fit
- Portfolio risk concentration: mechanism, indication and geography exposure
Business Dev · PortfolioPipeline by stage with risk-adjusted value contribution per programme. 06Pitch, teaser generation and deal CRM
Everything that leaves the building, generated from the evidence base and version-controlled.
- Non-confidential teaser generation from the asset's evidence base
- Full pitch deck assembly with valuation, comparables and competitive positioning
- Executive summary and data-room narrative drafting
- Deal CRM: counterparty pipeline, stage tracking, activity history, next actions
- Outreach sequencing and follow-up management
- Version control across every document that leaves the building
Business Dev · TeaserGenerated non-confidential teaser. Business Dev · Deal CRMCounterparty pipeline with stage tracking.
Asset valuation
Build the number in front of the person who will challenge it
Pick the phase, switch on the evidence the asset actually has, and set the two assumptions everyone argues about. The probability of success rebuilds on the odds scale, the valuation re-runs as a distribution, and the sensitivity re-ranks itself.
Development phase
Evidence the asset actually has
The two everyone argues about
Risk-adjusted value
1,200 Monte Carlo draws
$328M
P10 $186M·P90 $506M·point estimate $373M
0% of runs come out below zero. The point estimate is the one number in this panel that should never travel on its own.
What the valuation actually hangs on
Change in rNPV
Peak sales
$480M → $1.12B
Probability of success
0.24 → 0.53
Discount rate
9% → 13%
Years to launch
5 yr → 8 yr
The probability, walked backwards
The published base rate for the phase, adjusted on the odds scale by evidence the platform already holds. Every multiplier is returned, which is what makes the number arguable instead of asserted.
Base likelihood of approvalPhase 2
0.150
Human genetic support× 2.00
0.261
Structural tractability× 1.35
0.323
Causal evidence× 1.20
0.364
Enrichment biomarker× 1.25
0.364
Adjusted PTRS
0.364
Years to launch 6·remaining development cost $120M·margin 55%
Standing assumptions, printed rather than buried: a five-year uptake ramp to peak, ten years of exclusivity then 35% annual erosion, a 55% operating margin, and a twenty-year horizon. Remaining development cost is discounted at its midpoint and deliberately not risk-adjusted - you spend it whether or not the asset works.
There is no proprietary valuation model here, and there should not be: this is rNPV, and sophisticated buyers already know the arithmetic is standard. What is defensible is that every input above is stated, adjustable and traceable to a record - and that the answer arrives as a distribution rather than a number with a decimal place.
The same arithmetic, across the pipeline
Each programme carries its own PTRS and its own rNPV, so the portfolio is one risk-adjusted position rather than five opinions. Selection is on value density - risk-adjusted value per unit of remaining development commitment - not on programme size.
Illustrative pipeline. The point of the constrained selection is that it picks on value density rather than headline value - which is how a portfolio ends up materially less volatile than its steadiest single asset.
PRG-101Phase 2selected
rNPV $412M·commitment $120M·density 3.43×
PRG-118Phase 1
rNPV $268M·commitment $165M·density 1.62×
PRG-124Phase 3selected
rNPV $690M·commitment $70M·density 9.86×
PRG-131Preclinical
rNPV $143M·commitment $210M·density 0.68×
PRG-140Phase 2selected
rNPV $305M·commitment $118M·density 2.58×
PRG-152Preclinical
rNPV $96M·commitment $195M·density 0.49×
Comparable transactions
What an asset like this has actually been paid for
Filter the benchmark set by the stage you are dealing at. The medians underneath re-compute, because a Phase 1 upfront and a Phase 3 upfront are not the same conversation.
Stage
10 deals- Median upfront
- $118M
- Median headline total
- $1.14B
- Upfront as share of total
- 11%
- Median royalty
- 11%
- Upfront
- Milestones
- Equity & other
TX-2401
Phase 2 · Small molecule
$180M upfront of $1.34B headline · Immunology · 2024
12% royalty
TX-2312
Phase 1 · Bispecific
$75M upfront of $990M headline · Oncology · 2023
10% royalty
TX-2418
Phase 3 · Small molecule
$450M upfront of $1.80B headline · Cardiometabolic · 2024
15% royalty
TX-2205
Preclinical · siRNA
$28M upfront of $698M headline · Rare disease · 2022
8% royalty
TX-2427
Phase 2 · ADC
$210M upfront of $1.69B headline · Oncology · 2024
14% royalty
TX-2309
Phase 3 · Biologic
$520M upfront of $1.50B headline · Immunology · 2023
16% royalty
TX-2216
Phase 1 · Cell therapy
$60M upfront of $1.17B headline · Oncology · 2022
9% royalty
TX-2432
Preclinical · Small molecule
$35M upfront of $775M headline · Neurology · 2024
7% royalty
TX-2321
Phase 2 · Biologic
$145M upfront of $1.10B headline · Respiratory · 2023
11% royalty
TX-2408
Phase 1 · Small molecule
$90M upfront of $885M headline · Immunology · 2024
10% royalty
Illustrative benchmark set, structured the way the real one is: upfront, milestones, equity and royalty rate held separately, because a headline "biobucks" total tells you almost nothing about what was actually paid at signature.
Counterparties & diligence
Who would buy it, and what they will ask for
Fit is scored on portfolio gap, stage behaviour and recent strategic direction - not on who is biggest. Open a counterparty to see why it is on the list.
Counterparty ALarge-cap pharma91
- Portfolio gap
- No asset in this mechanism after a 2024 discontinuation
- Deal behaviour
- Buys at Phase 2, structures light on upfront and heavy on regulatory milestones
- Focus
- Immunology, with a stated pivot toward oral mechanisms
- Decision-makers
- Head of Search & Evaluation, Immunology BD lead
Counterparty BMid-cap specialty84
- Portfolio gap
- Adjacent indication already commercialised; no pipeline behind it
- Deal behaviour
- Prefers regional rights deals with an option to expand
- Focus
- Immunology and respiratory, Europe-first commercial footprint
- Decision-makers
- Chief Business Officer, Head of Alliance Management
Counterparty CCrossover investor77
- Portfolio gap
- Thesis-level interest in the mechanism; two prior investments in the space
- Deal behaviour
- Leads Series B/C, expects a defined path to a pivotal readout
- Focus
- Immunology and rare disease, 18-month deployment window
- Decision-makers
- Partner, Principal covering immunology
Counterparty DRegional partner68
- Portfolio gap
- No presence in the mechanism; strong local commercial infrastructure
- Deal behaviour
- Territory licences with modest upfronts and high royalties
- Focus
- Asia-Pacific rights, in-licensing at Phase 2 and later
- Decision-makers
- VP Business Development, Regional Medical Director
Diligence readiness
What the pack looks like today, and what a serious counterparty will ask for that is not in it yet.
Scientific evidence
88
Mechanism, genetic support and causal evidence all cited to source.
Clinical
72
Phase 2 readout complete; long-term safety follow-up still accruing.
Intellectual property
64
Composition-of-matter granted; freedom-to-operate opinion is two years old.
Regulatory
58
No agency minutes since the end-of-Phase-2 meeting request.
Competitive position
81
Landscape current, with two late-stage entrants tracked.
Manufacturing & CMC
41
No registrational-scale process; a counterparty will find this first.
What they will find first
- Freedom-to-operate opinion predates two relevant grants - refresh before the data room opens
- No registrational-scale CMC package; expect it to be the first technical question
- Regulatory correspondence gap since the end-of-Phase-2 request
Data and AI
What the valuations and matches are built from
| Domain | Sources |
|---|---|
| Clinical & stage risk | ClinicalTrials.gov registry, status history and outcomes |
| Deal benchmarks | Published transaction records and corporate disclosures |
| Company intelligence | Portfolio, pipeline and strategic disclosure records |
| Assets & modality | ChEMBL, DrugBank, Open Targets |
| Intellectual property | Patent records and SureChEMBL patent chemistry |
| Evidence base | PubMed / MEDLINE |
| Regulatory | Approval records and the FDA Orange Book |
Valuations are produced as ranges with visible drivers. A single-point valuation with a hidden probability of success is not a valuation - it is an opinion with a decimal place.
Models
Financial modelling engines
rNPV, NPV, DCF and real-options valuation, with fully exposed assumption trees.
Stage-transition probability models
Derived from historical clinical trial outcomes by indication and modality.
Monte Carlo simulation
Valuation distributions and confidence ranges.
Similarity and matching models
Counterparty fit scored across portfolio, strategy and deal behaviour.
Retrieval-augmented language models
Diligence assembly, teaser and pitch drafting, and precedent synthesis - cited to source records.
Graph analysis
Over the company-asset-deal network, to surface non-obvious partners.
How a deal is prepared
Seven stages, and the counterparty sees the last three
Select a stage to see what happens in it. The work that decides the outcome is done in the first four, before anyone outside the building has been contacted.
Stage 1 of 7
Model the asset — Indication, stage, modality, development plan.
The asset record everything else is computed from: what it is, where it is, what remains to be spent, and what the development plan actually commits to. Evidence - genetic support, tractability, causal class, trial activity - is attached here, and every later number inherits it.
What it hands on
- Asset record
- Development plan
- Evidence attachments
Stage 2 of 7
Value it — rNPV and DCF with scenarios and sensitivities.
Risk-adjusted discounted cash flow with the phase base rate adjusted on the odds scale by the evidence the asset actually has. Bear, base and bull; a Monte Carlo distribution rather than a point; and a tornado that names the assumption the valuation hangs on.
What it hands on
- rNPV distribution
- Scenario set
- Ranked sensitivities
Stage 3 of 7
Benchmark it — Comparable transactions matched on stage and modality.
Deals matched on modality, indication, stage and geography, broken into upfront, milestones, royalties and equity - so the benchmark is a structure rather than a headline. Terms trends show whether the market has moved since the comparables were signed.
What it hands on
- Matched comparables
- Structure benchmark
- Terms trend
Stage 4 of 7
Target — Ranked counterparties with strategic-fit rationale.
Portfolio gap analysis, stage behaviour and recent strategic direction produce a ranked list with a reason attached to each name, plus the decision-makers inside each organisation. Fit is scored on strategy, not on size.
What it hands on
- Ranked counterparty list
- Fit rationale
- Decision-maker map
Stage 5 of 7
Prepare — Diligence readiness, gap closure, data-room structure.
The diligence checklist for this modality and stage, with evidence assembled automatically across science, IP, clinical, regulatory and competitive position - and the gaps named. Red flags are surfaced here rather than discovered by the other side.
What it hands on
- Readiness assessment
- Gap list
- Data-room structure
Stage 6 of 7
Package — Teaser, deck and narrative generated from the evidence base.
A non-confidential teaser, a full pitch deck carrying the valuation, comparables and competitive position, and a data-room narrative - all generated from the same evidence base, so the story in the deck and the numbers in the model cannot drift apart.
What it hands on
- Non-confidential teaser
- Pitch deck
- Data-room narrative
Stage 7 of 7
Run the process — CRM tracking, outreach sequencing, version control.
Counterparty pipeline with stage tracking, activity history and next actions; outreach sequenced rather than improvised; and version control across every document that leaves the building, so you know exactly which number each party has seen.
What it hands on
- Deal pipeline
- Outreach sequence
- Document version history
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