Market & Commercial Insight
Good science with no commercial case is an expensive hobby
Market & Commercial Insight quantifies what an asset is actually worth pursuing: addressable population, competitive position, achievable price, payer reception, adoption curve and revenue trajectory - built from evidence, with every assumption visible and adjustable.
- 8
- Commercial capability areas
- 6
- Public evidence domains underneath them
- 3
- Scenarios on every forecast
- 0
- Assumptions you cannot see or change
Market and epidemiology figures produced by the platform are model outputs with stated assumptions, not published statistics. Every number on this page opens into the arithmetic that produced it - and the two models below run live, from the same code the page was built with.
Key features
Eight questions a commercial case has to answer
Open a capability to see what it does and the screen it does it in. Each one reads the same asset record, so a population estimate argued in the first is the population the forecast in the sixth is built on.
01Disease opportunity & epidemiology
How many patients there actually are, stage by stage, with the rate behind each narrowing shown rather than assumed.
- Disease burden modelling: incidence, prevalence, diagnosis rate, treatment rate
- Patient funnel from population to addressable, treated, eligible
- Unmet-need quantification against current standard of care
- Geographic breakdown across major and emerging markets
- Sub-population segmentation by biomarker, line of therapy and severity
Commercial Insight · EpidemiologyPatient funnel with adjustable diagnosis and treatment-rate assumptions. 02Market sizing - TAM / SAM / SOM
Three market figures, each one a stated narrowing of the one before it, and a sensitivity view that names the assumption doing the work.
- Addressable, serviceable and obtainable market modelling with explicit assumptions
- Scenario modelling: conservative, base and aggressive, side by side
- Sensitivity analysis showing which assumption actually drives the number
- Market evolution over the forecast horizon, including patent-cliff effects on incumbents
Commercial Insight · Market sizingTAM/SAM/SOM waterfall with the sensitivity tornado beneath it. 03Competitive & drug landscape intelligence
Where the asset would actually sit at launch - against what is approved, what is coming, and how crowded its mechanism already is.
- Full competitive map: approved therapies, late-stage pipeline, early pipeline
- Mechanism clustering - who is crowding your mechanism, and who is not
- Expected entry timing and its effect on your window
- Standard-of-care mapping by line of therapy and geography
- Company intelligence: portfolio, strategy, deal history, therapeutic focus
Commercial Insight · Competitive landscapeLandscape matrix by line of therapy. Commercial Insight · Drug landscapeMechanism-clustered pipeline map. 04Pricing intelligence
A corridor rather than a number, grounded in comparators, reference-pricing linkages and what the clinical differentiation can actually carry.
- Comparator and analogue pricing across markets
- Price corridor modelling with reference-pricing effects
- Value-based price estimation against clinical differentiation
- Gross-to-net and discount-environment context by geography
- Launch-sequence pricing implications - where you launch first constrains what you can charge later
Commercial Insight · PricingComparator price bands, reference-pricing linkages, value-based estimate. 05Reimbursement, HTA & market access
What each payer will want to see, early enough that it can still change the trial you are designing.
- Payer archetype analysis and expected coverage position
- HTA precedent review for comparable assets and indications
- Evidence-requirement mapping - what each payer will actually want to see
- Access-pathway modelling: formulary, restriction, prior authorisation, managed entry
- Health economics: cost-effectiveness modelling and budget-impact estimation
Commercial Insight · Payer landscapeExpected coverage position by market. Commercial Insight · HTA precedentComparable appraisals and their determinations. 06Commercial forecasting
Adoption modelled as a curve with a band around it, risk-adjusted by the development stage the asset is actually at.
- Revenue forecasting with adoption, uptake and persistence curves
- Physician adoption modelling by specialty and setting
- Peak-sales estimation with confidence ranges rather than a single point
- Launch-sequence and geographic-expansion modelling
- Risk-adjusted scenarios tied to development-stage probabilities
Commercial Insight · ForecastRevenue curves across three scenarios with uptake assumptions exposed. 07KOL mapping & geographic expansion
Who shapes prescribing in each market, and which markets are worth entering first - with the reasoning attached to the recommendation.
- Key opinion leader identification by influence, publication record, trial involvement and network position
- Advocacy mapping - who shapes prescribing behaviour in each market
- Country attractiveness scoring across market size, access environment, regulatory pathway and competitive density
- Launch-sequence recommendation with the reasoning attached
Commercial Insight · KOL networkInfluence network from the co-authorship graph. Commercial Insight · GeographyCountry attractiveness matrix. 08Commercial risk & readiness scoring
The honest summary: what is strong, what is missing, and what to fix first - in a form a board can read.
- Commercial risk register: competitive, pricing, access, adoption and regulatory
- Readiness scoring across evidence, differentiation, access strategy and commercial infrastructure
- Gap identification with recommended actions, ranked by impact
- Board-ready export of the full commercial case
Commercial Insight · ReadinessCommercial readiness scorecard. Commercial Insight · Risk registerRisks ranked by impact, with mitigations.
Market sizing
Move a rate and watch the market move with it
A reference population narrowed one stated rate at a time, then priced. Every rate below is an assumption with a default and a source in the product; here they are yours to drag. The sensitivity panel re-ranks itself as you do.
- TAM
- $19.7B
- Every treated, eligible patient
- SAM
- $10.8B
- Reachable by the launch footprint
- SOM
- $1.52B
- Taken at achievable peak share
Assumptions
Curated epidemiology seed - SEER, GBD, published cohorts
Claims-based diagnosis studies for the indication
Biomarker prevalence and line-of-therapy split
Treatment-rate literature for the diagnosed population
Launch footprint and channel coverage
Analogue launches in the same competitive density
Adults across the launch markets: 340.0M · annual net price $48,000
Reference population
340.0M
Prevalent patients
3.06M×0.9%
Diagnosed
1.77M×58%
Eligible for the mechanism
603K×34%
Actively treatedTAM
410K×68%
Reachable at launchSAM
226K×55%
Obtainable at peak shareSOM
32K×14%
Which assumption is carrying the forecast
Effect on SOM across each defensible range
- Achievable peak share±75%
- Prevalence±44%
- Eligible for the mechanism±38%
- Diagnosis rate±31%
- Reachable at launch±27%
- Actively treated±20%
Illustrative population and price, at an annual net price of $48,000 per patient. The arithmetic is the product's: reference population × prevalence × diagnosis × eligibility × treatment × reach × achievable share. Nothing here is a published market statistic - it is a model output with the assumptions on the surface, which is the only kind of figure worth arguing about.
Reimbursement & HTA
The same dossier is a yes in one market and a no in the next
Drag your incremental cost per QALY across the payer landscape. Each body is scored against its own published acceptance range, and against the modifier it applies when severity, orphan status or end-of-life criteria are met.
Raises each body’s acceptance range by its own published multiplier.
NICE
England & Wales
£20-30k per QALY, with a severity modifier of up to 1.7×
Unlikely without a dealCADTH
Canada
No formal threshold, but a well-documented decision range
Unlikely without a dealPBAC
Australia
Higher ranges accepted for severe and rare conditions
Unlikely without a dealICER
United States
Value-assessment benchmark, not a payer decision in itself
Likely to recommendG-BA / IQWiG
Germany
No published cost-per-QALY thresholdNo cost-per-QALY threshold: added-benefit rating first, price negotiated after
Benefit-led, then negotiated
- $0
- $50k
- $100k
- $150k
- $200k
- At or under the acceptance range
- Inside the range - expect conditions, restrictions or a managed-entry agreement
- Above the range - a price deal is the route, not the evidence
Acceptance ranges are the published or well-documented ones, converted to PPP-adjusted USD for comparison; they are a starting frame, not a determination. In the product this sits on top of the HTA model trained on real appraisals, which returns a conformal prediction set - and is allowed to answer "uncertain".
Commercial forecasting
Three scenarios, one model, no single fragile line
Adoption against the patient-flow ceiling, drawn across 600 Monte Carlo paths, eroded from loss of exclusivity. Switch scenario to see what changes - and what does not.
Slow physician uptake, an earlier competitor entry, and a steeper cliff.
600 Monte Carlo paths
- Peak median share of ceiling
- 32%
- P10 - P90 at peak
- 23-41%
- Peak reached in
- Year 7
- Innovation coefficient 0.018
- Imitation coefficient 0.30
- Exclusivity to year 7
- 45% annual erosion
Defaulted coefficients, and the case everything else on this page is built on.
600 Monte Carlo paths
- Peak median share of ceiling
- 70%
- P10 - P90 at peak
- 57-81%
- Peak reached in
- Year 8
- Innovation coefficient 0.030
- Imitation coefficient 0.42
- Exclusivity to year 8
- 35% annual erosion
Strong differentiation, guideline inclusion early, and a defended exclusivity window.
600 Monte Carlo paths
- Peak median share of ceiling
- 97%
- P10 - P90 at peak
- 93-99%
- Peak reached in
- Year 10
- Innovation coefficient 0.050
- Imitation coefficient 0.55
- Exclusivity to year 10
- 28% annual erosion
Share of the eligible treated population, indexed to the patient-flow ceiling. Bass coefficients are defaulted assumptions, adjustable in the product and not fitted to your asset - the band is the honest part of the chart.
Risk & readiness
What you can claim from it - and what it says you are missing
- A defensible addressable-population estimate with the patient funnel exposed
- A competitive map showing where your asset would actually sit at launch
- A price corridor grounded in comparators, reference pricing and clinical differentiation
- An evidence-requirement list per major payer, early enough to influence trial design
- A risk-adjusted revenue forecast with three scenarios and visible sensitivities
- A commercial readiness score with a ranked list of what to fix first
Readiness scorecard
54
Four dimensions, scored separately, because an average would hide the one that is failing.
Evidence
74
Phase II readout supports the primary claim; no head-to-head yet.
Differentiation
61
Mechanism is differentiated; the clinical margin over standard of care is not yet quantified.
Access strategy
43
No payer evidence plan, and the endpoint two of five payers ask for is not being collected.
Commercial infrastructure
38
No field model, no launch sequence, no pricing governance.
Risk register, ranked by impact
Access
CriticalTwo major payers require an endpoint the current protocol does not collect.
Add the endpoint before the Phase III protocol locks.
Competitive
CriticalTwo late-stage assets in the same mechanism read out inside the launch window.
Model the entry timing into the forecast rather than assuming a clear window.
Pricing
MaterialLaunch-sequence choice constrains the achievable price in reference-priced markets.
Re-sequence launch markets before the first price is set.
Adoption
MaterialUptake assumes guideline inclusion within eighteen months of approval.
Test the forecast against a scenario without it.
Regulatory
MonitorAccelerated pathway eligibility is assumed, not confirmed.
Confirm at the next agency interaction and re-run the PTRS.
Data and AI
What the analysis is built from
| Domain | Sources |
|---|---|
| Clinical & pipeline | ClinicalTrials.gov registry and results, trial status history |
| Disease burden | Published epidemiological literature and public health datasets |
| Approved therapies | Regulatory approval records and the FDA Orange Book |
| Drug & target context | ChEMBL, DrugBank, Open Targets |
| Evidence base | PubMed / MEDLINE |
| Access & HTA | Published HTA determinations and payer policy documentation |
Every number the platform produces opens into the assumptions behind it. Change an assumption and the model re-runs - because a forecast you cannot argue with is a forecast you cannot use.
Models
Retrieval-augmented language models
Evidence synthesis, HTA precedent review and narrative generation - every claim cited to a source record.
Specialised agents per domain
Epidemiology, pricing, access, forecasting, KOL and risk, each with its own evidence scope and output contract.
Statistical and econometric forecasting
Adoption, uptake and persistence curves.
Monte Carlo simulation
Scenario ranges and confidence intervals rather than point estimates.
Network analysis
KOL influence and advocacy mapping from the co-authorship graph.
Multi-criteria scoring
Country attractiveness and commercial readiness.
How an assessment runs
Seven stages, each one arguable on its own terms
Select a stage to see what happens in it. Every stage hands the next a set of stated assumptions rather than a finished number.
Stage 1 of 7
Define — Asset, indication, target profile and geographies.
The scope decision that governs everything after it: which indication, which line of therapy, which markets, and what the asset is claiming to do better than what is already there. Recorded as the frame every later stage is answerable to.
What it hands on
- Asset & indication record
- Target product profile
- Market scope
Stage 2 of 7
Size — Epidemiology, patient funnel, TAM / SAM / SOM.
Disease burden modelled from published epidemiology, narrowed through diagnosis, eligibility and treatment rates into a patient funnel, then priced into three market figures - each rate visible, sourced and adjustable.
What it hands on
- Patient funnel
- TAM / SAM / SOM
- Sensitivity ranking
Stage 3 of 7
Position — Competitive landscape, standard of care, differentiation.
Approved therapies, late- and early-stage pipeline, clustered by mechanism, with expected entry timing mapped against your own. Standard of care by line of therapy and geography, so differentiation is stated against something specific.
What it hands on
- Competitive map
- Mechanism clusters
- Differentiation statement
Stage 4 of 7
Price — Comparator corridors, value-based estimation, reference effects.
Analogue benchmarking over a selectable comparator set, a value-based ceiling from willingness-to-pay against incremental QALYs, and a gross-to-net walk. Reference-pricing linkages make the launch sequence a pricing decision, not a logistics one.
What it hands on
- Price corridor
- Value-based ceiling
- Gross-to-net walk
Stage 5 of 7
Access — Payer archetypes, HTA precedent, evidence requirements.
Expected coverage position per payer archetype, precedent from comparable appraisals, and the evidence each body will want to see - produced early enough that it can still change the trial being designed rather than explaining the one that already read out.
What it hands on
- Payer landscape
- HTA precedent set
- Evidence-requirement list
Stage 6 of 7
Forecast — Adoption modelling, scenarios, sensitivities.
Patient-flow ceiling times a diffusion curve, eroded at loss of exclusivity, risk-adjusted by the canonical probability of success and wrapped in Monte Carlo. Three scenarios, and a named list of the inputs the answer is most sensitive to.
What it hands on
- P10 / P50 / P90 bands
- Peak-sales range
- Named sensitivities
Stage 7 of 7
Score — Readiness assessment, risk register, prioritised actions.
Readiness scored across evidence, differentiation, access strategy and commercial infrastructure; risks registered with severity and mitigation; and the whole commercial case exported in a form a board can read without a modeller present.
What it hands on
- Readiness scorecard
- Ranked risk register
- Board-ready export
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